---
{
  "id": "ASD-EXP-TESTS-REPRODUCIBILITY",
  "path": "/tests/reproducibility",
  "title": "实验预测的复现标准",
  "title_en": "Reproducibility for Experimental Predictions",
  "category": "实验研究计划",
  "summary": "把来源、方程、输入、代码、环境、期望输出和失败条件变成每一条预测的固定交付。",
  "template": "test",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "updated": "2026-09-22",
  "date_published": "2026-09-22",
  "canonical": false,
  "source_tier": "published",
  "theory_status": "OPEN",
  "evidence_status": "UNTESTED",
  "locale": "zh",
  "module_key": "experimental-program",
  "module_navigation": [
    {
      "path": "/tests",
      "label": "实验计划",
      "en": "Program"
    },
    {
      "path": "/tests/predictions",
      "label": "预测登记",
      "en": "Registry"
    },
    {
      "path": "/tests/falsification",
      "label": "证伪范围",
      "en": "Falsification"
    },
    {
      "path": "/tests/priority-experiments",
      "label": "优先实验",
      "en": "Priorities"
    },
    {
      "path": "/tests/reproducibility",
      "label": "复现标准",
      "en": "Reproducibility"
    }
  ],
  "canonical_scope": "实验研究计划；不新增正式物理结论",
  "source_chapter": "Existing canonical module snapshots / 现有正式模块快照",
  "source_reference": "Predictions & Falsification v1.0 · review 2026-09-22",
  "source_version": "EXP-7ca61744dcd2",
  "source_sha256": "7ca61744dcd2129e7fcd6902223c71166f3ededeb84b599d544cb20dba88130a",
  "source_kind": "manifest",
  "source_manifest": "predictions-source-manifest.json",
  "source_manifest_url": "/downloads/ASD_Predictions_Source_Manifest.json",
  "last_reviewed": "2026-09-22",
  "depends_on": [],
  "related": [
    "/tests",
    "/tests/predictions",
    "/tests/falsification",
    "/tests/priority-experiments"
  ],
  "open_problems": [],
  "equations": [],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Predictions source and scope manifest",
      "kind": "research-program",
      "url": "/downloads/ASD_Predictions_Source_Manifest.json"
    },
    {
      "label": "Ota et al. (2022), Nature Physics 18, 1436–1440",
      "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41567-022-01767-w",
      "kind": "external-reference"
    },
    {
      "label": "PDG (2024), Cosmic Rays review",
      "url": "https://pdg.lbl.gov/2024/reviews/rpp2024-rev-cosmic-rays.pdf",
      "kind": "external-reference"
    },
    {
      "label": "Wolf et al. (2006), Cold Atom Clock Test of Lorentz Invariance in the Matter Sector",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/hep-ph/0601024",
      "kind": "external-reference"
    },
    {
      "label": "BACON Collaboration (2021), optical frequency ratio network",
      "url": "https://www.nist.gov/publications/frequency-ratio-measurements-18-digit-accuracy-using-network-optical-clocks",
      "kind": "external-reference"
    }
  ],
  "outline": [
    "复现不是再画一条曲线",
    "最小可复现记录",
    "参数冻结与比较纪律",
    "本轮可复现范围"
  ],
  "seo_title": "实验预测的复现标准 | ASD Predictions & Falsification v1.0",
  "canonical_url": "https://asd-physics.org/tests/reproducibility",
  "translation_path": "/en/tests/reproducibility",
  "mathematical_review": "INCOMPLETE",
  "evidence_note": "尚无闭合定量判别预测；工作台为规划或比较模型。"
}
---
## 复现不是再画一条曲线

<ProgramNavigation />

原始数据复现、标准模型复算、ASD 独立预测与装置级拟合是四种不同产物。每次运行必须说明属于哪一类；合成数据不可以进入“观测支持”栏。

## 最小可复现记录

| 文件 / 记录 | 必须包含 |
| --- | --- |
| README | 目标 Prediction ID、范围、命令、限制、预期结果 |
| equations.md | 公式 ID、来源版本、推导输入和近似 |
| input / provenance | 数据来源、许可、单位、筛选、原始/处理/合成标签 |
| notebook + script | 同输入两模型接口；缺失 ASD 模型明确为空 |
| expected output + figure | 可核对的数值和图，不将示例包装为实验 |
| environment | Python/软件版本、依赖、随机种子（如使用） |
| checksums | 输入、代码和期望输出的 SHA-256 |
| decision protocol | 误差预算、相关性、似然、拒绝域与影响节点 |

[下载可运行复现模板](/downloads/ASD_Experimental_Reproducibility_Kit.zip) · [进入资料与运行说明](/research/reproducibility)

## 参数冻结与比较纪律

标明哪些参数来自独立实验、哪些来自此次拟合。分别保存校准集与检验集。两模型必须使用相同装置、数据选择和噪声假设；若理论要求不同校准，应显式建模而非偷偷共享经理论重建的“原始场”。失败、零差值与不具可识别性的结果都要保留。

## 本轮可复现范围

模板可复算方向几何、恒能 μ 子标准存活率、分 bin 接受度求和及标准点电荷经假设响应的波形。它不提供 ASD 新预测、真实数据拟合或完成的 Ota / S301 复现。正式数据发布是后续独立版本。